2026 Changes to the Sentencing Guidelines

I have been asked numerous times about the proposed amendments to the U.S. Sentencing Guidelines which were voted on on April 16, 2026. The rumors are swirling so I thought I would address them and provide the proposed changes.

There are no significant beneficial changes to drug cases. The one beneficial change that is related to drug trafficking is the revision of monetary guidelines used in money laundering and other financial crimes. The proposed changes are linked below but if you have a financial crime or money laundering you should be aware of the adjustments to the monetary table which could be a 2 level or more reduction in your case. However, it is doubtful this will be applied retroactively so if you have a money laundering or financial crime, and the tables would result in a lower sentence, you need to postpone sentencing until November 1, 2026, or later.

The only other beneficial change is a statement about consideration of rehabilitative activities before sentencing. Experience has shown this is usually discussed if there are significant events but gathering jail certificates for completed courses may not result in a change, but it is worth a try.

Here is a link to the changes: https://www.ussc.gov/guidelines/amendments/adopted-amendments-effective-november-1-2026 

World-wide Cocaine Seizures

U.S. law enforcement tries to maintain a mantra that most of the cocaine being produced is destined for the United States. While this was true in the 1980s and 1990’s, when Pablo Escobar and his friends were sending approximately 2000 kilos a month (2 metric tons, 24 a year) from Colombia, the metrics have dramatically changed in both production and distribution. The United Nations Office for Drug Controls latest estimate for 2023 showed production of 3,708 tons, most going to Europe, Asia, Africa and other destinations other than the U.S.

The reason for this is simple and is three factors. First, the appetite for cocaine in the U.S. has gone down. The top three drugs in the U.S. are all largely legal and widely used, alcohol, cigarettes and marijuana. Then there is opioids, heroin, fentanyl, and methamphetamine. All more widely used than cocaine. Second, the risk of seizure and consequences is lower in most countries (other than parts of Asia) and this it is a matter of risk minimization for maximum profit. Third, Cocaine sells for more money in Europe, Asia and Australia, sometimes 10 times what it sells for in the U.S.

Insight Crime is an organization that does a good job of gathering details from around the world about drug production, distribution and seizures. They recently published the below excellent work on Cocaine seizures which gives some hint of production, distribution and seizures. But, the DEA mantra that was applicable 40 years ago no longer applies. All credit to the Insight Crime staff for the below;

https://insightcrime.org/news/insight-crimes-2025-cocaine-seizure-round-up/ 

Confidential Source Representation

The DEA uses confidential sources to make their cases and then tends to try to blame the CS when things go wrong. In this case, Agent Jose Irizarry thought he was a drug dealer and world wide tourist on the Government dime along with other agents who acted more like a frat house than a professional law enforcement agency. Unfortunately, a good CS got sucked into the vacuum.

Don Bailey has represented numerous Confidential Sources against charges that often began with malfeasance of DEA agents and they tried pointing fingers to mitigate their corruption.